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本周議題--未來會不會為水而戰?-2010/09/10

近幾年來,我們聽到的對於未來戰爭的預言,都是關於資源的控制權鬥爭,例如水。在一定程度上,大多數戰爭已經是如此了。不過,在水本身而言,一些專家質疑這項預測。國際新聞社(IPS)的表示一些專家不同意這種觀點,即未來的戰爭將是爭奪水源,而是覺得這是水資源問題是,沒有缺乏性(這是用於預測的基本假設管理不善等戰爭。) 同樣的IPS文章引用Arunabha Ghosh,在聯合國人類發展報告2006年水資源管理指出,“以為水戰爭的主題為報紙的頭條,但並沒有做好合作或協議。...有大量的雙邊,多邊和水分享,全部或大部分不做好一份報紙跨邊界協議。“ 也有人指出,有許多地區之間合作分享水資源帶來的利益的例子比為水資源利益發生衝突的地區的還多。斯德哥爾摩國際水資源研究所認為,“維持了10-20年的水資源衝突仍在循環著。” 在同一時間出現了種種事件,如以色列從利塔尼河黎巴嫩水管最近爆發與水恐慌有關的戰爭,農田沿海岸平原和貝卡谷地的部分,以及在斯里蘭卡在那裡的叛亂集團改道運河發生的衝突。 其他可能是值得關注的例子包括作為該國將巴拿馬運河國有化,西北通道經加拿大北極地區現在是開放更多,由於氣候變化,美方認為應該是一個國際水方式,其他各種對水的依賴可能進一步影響上升或下游(如印度/巴基斯坦,以色列/約旦,各種尼羅河依賴國家和地區北部,東部和中部非洲)。 斯德哥爾摩國際水資源研究所還認為,“這種論點對水的戰爭[]無視最近的研究顯示,大量缺水國家共用一個水體往往會找到合作的解決方案,而不是進入到暴力衝突”,這可能提供希望不要發生衝突,至少不是因為水資源。 莫德巴羅在很短的採訪也提高了水的地理政治問題的關切。她指出,如美國,中國和歐洲等地都視水問題為一個國家安全的議題,無論是獲取,管理或短缺。控制和取得水也將是重要的工業,人們的消費也是如此。 原文: Future Wars Over Water? For a number of years now, we have heard of predictions that future wars will be fought over control of essential resources, such as water. To some extent, most wars have already been about that. However, in terms of water itself, some experts question this prediction. Inter Press Service (IPS) notes a number of experts disagree with the view that future wars will be over water, and instead feel it is mismanagement of water resources which is the issue, not scarcity (which is the underlying assumption for the prediction of such wars.) That same IPS article quotes Arunabha Ghosh, co-author of the United Nations Human Development Report 2006 themed on water management who says, “Water wars make good newspaper headlines but cooperation (agreements) don’t.… there are plenty of bilateral, multilateral and trans-boundary agreements for water-sharing—all or most of which do not make good newspaper copy.” Others have noted that there are many more examples of cooperation than conflict in regions with shard water interests. The Stockholm International Water Institute opines that “10- to 20-year-old arguments about conflict over water are still being recycled.” At the same time there have been various incidents that fuel the fear of water-related wars, such as Israel’s recent bombing of the Lebanese water pipelines from the Litani River to farmland along the coastal plain and parts of the Bekaa Valley, and the conflict in Sri Lanka where the rebel group diverted a canal. Other examples that might be worth watching include the Panama canal as that country considers nationalizing it, the North West Passage through Canada’s northern polar region that is now opening up more due to climate change, which the US argues should be an international water way, and various others that may affect water dependency further up or downstream (e.g. between India/Pakistan, Israel/Jordan, various Nile-dependent countries throughout northern, eastern and central Africa). The Stockholm International Water Institute also argues that “Such arguments [for water wars] ignore massive amounts of recent research which shows that water-scarce states that share a water body tend to find cooperative solutions rather than enter into violent conflict,” which may offer hope that conflicts do not arise, at least not due to water resources. Maude Barlow, in a short interview (transcript) also raises the concern of geopolitical issues with water. She notes that places such as United States, China and Europe are all seeing water as a national security issue, whether it be for access, management or shortage. Control and access to water will also be important for their industries, as well as for people’s consumption. 資料來源:http://www.globalissues.org/article/601/water-and-development

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